« The support of the former communist countries of the Eastern Europe for the United
States should not be interpreted as an act of obsequiousness, as it is not a question of
agreeing altogether on the American policy », estimates the Bulgarian political analyst
Ognyan Minchev. It is rather a question of «expression of the long-term fundamental
national interests, shared by all post-communist European countries, based on the
preservation of the Euro-Atlantic space at all costs and the directing role of the United
States.»With their categorical support for the United
States during the Iraqi crisis, the post-communist countries put in evidence a big break
on the Old continent, between pacifist and neutralist Western Europe and pro-Atlantic East
Europe. Why did they run the risk of provoking the anger and fury of
its "western godfathers" by supporting the United States, in spite of
the reserves on the policies of the current conservative administration in Washington?
The explanations of moral order or the consequentive
questions are pointless. Post-communist Europe indeed already chose, by opting for the
community and the western institutions, namely NATO and EC. As for the Iraqi crisis, the
dilemma between Germany and the United States has nothing to do with the simplistic and
moralizing plan of the Good against the Evil: it is especially about two opposite
strategic visions, structured according to different interests but both relatively
justifiable.
The position of East Europe in favour of the United States
is pragmatic and results from the long-term strategic interests of the post-communist
countries. This position is based on the postulate that the unity and the efficiency of
the Euro-Atlantic community requires an active involvement of the United States,
indispensable in the equation of the European security.
After the fall of the communist regimes in 1989, the East
European societies were affected with painful social, economic and institutional
alterations characterized notably by very grave problems of security. The fragility of the
new institutional and democratic systems, the painful transition towards unsatisfactory
market economies and criminalized privatization, representation and efficiency of the
national institutions, inter-ethnic conflicts, all this incited oriental Europe to turn to
the West.
But the West Europe did not move. After "the
adoption" of East Germany, reunited Germany and its European partners put back
the in the East undated extension buffer, abandoning East Europeans to themselves. The
refusal of the integration and the absence of efforts similar to those of the plan Marshal
was followed in the 90s by the inability of the EC to contain the ethnic conflicts in
which got stuck in the mud the states of ex-Yugoslavia.
In brief, the strong involvement of the United States in
the European policy turned out to be essential if post-communist Europe wished to resolve
its complex problems connected to the transition and the security. The implication of the
United States and the NATO in Bosnia allowed the Dayton agreements. The decision of the
administration Clinton to support the eastward extension of NATO was the consolation after
the postponement of the extension of the EC. The post-communist countries incorporated the
real politic that the only rational way of finding a solution to their difficulties
related to security passed by the United States commitment and the transatlantic
community.
But the priority which these countries tune to the
conservation and to the development of the transatlantic partnership does not ensue
strictly from the current context of transition towards the democracy, the market economy
and the institutional efficiency. Central and oriental Europe is a region which the
initiatives of major powers made unstable and vulnerable during centuries.
The Cold war had frozen in the East the divisions and the
traditional conflicts. The presence of the United States in the balance of the European
security, through the NATO for example, created an unique occasion to turn the back in the
inheritance of the conflicts between the main European protagonists, namely France,
Germany and the United Kingdom. Even if the idea according to which Europe is enough
mature to protect its unity and the peace all on one's own, without the United States,
even if this idea is acceptable in the circles of the anti-American left and those of the
Gaullist right-hand side in the Western Europe, it is not it still in the former communist
countries. Contemporary Poland keeps a lively recollection of the neighborhood with
Germany and Russia. Today, NATO and the United States are factors independent from the
Polish security which guarantee that Poland will never be destroyed and divided by its
powerful neighbours. A similar guarantee is offered by the United States, always by the
intervention of the NATO, in the Baltic States, in the Czech Republic, in Hungary, in
Rumania and in Bulgaria. In the Bulgarian case, NATO represents an essential factor both
for the regional balance and for the national security.
The Iraqi crisis allowed certain anti-American circles in
Europe and the anti-European and the other conservatives in the United States to express
their doubts on the transatlantic future of the partnership and the cooperation in
security. Because the risks of destruction or loss of direction of the transatlantic
cooperation are important and several aspects of the question cannot be the object of this
article, the more modest purpose of which is to formulate the real stakes for central and
oriental Europe connected with the decline of the Atlantic Alliance.
The first consequence of a destruction of the
transatlantic cooperation would be the fast and considerable increase of the influence of
Russia in post-communist Europe. The geopolitical game of the 19th century, that of
"major powers", would begin again and big France, big Russia and maybe
big and today peaceful Germany would again try to manipulate the fate of the smallest and
more vulnerable European countries, distributed in spheres of influence. Certainly, the EC
gives sufficient guarantees in terms of social and economic development, but it is not the
case in the field of the security. This because the foreign and common security policy has
never exceeded the good intentions and does not succeed in melting the national interests
of the big States of the EC - which are the former major powers. That's why the strategy
of long-term development of the post-communist countries includes simultaneously and with
the same degree of priority two essential objectives: member future of the NATO and
the member of the EC. The crisis and the possible destruction of the NATO will modify
certainly the perspectives of European integration of these countries. Instead of entering
the club dreamed about the free and prosperous nations, they risk to adhere to another
club, that of the satellites associated to the closest European power.
The support of the former communist countries of the
Eastern Europe for the United States must not be interpreted as an act of obsequiousness,
quite as it is not a question of agreeing altogether on the overall policy led by the
conservative administration in place to Washington. This support must be understood as the
expression of the long-term fundamental national interests, shared by all the
post-communist European countries, based on the protection at all costs of the
euro-Atlantic space and the dominating role of the United States. It explains the paradox
of the Eastern Europe which, in cooperation with Spain, Italy and the United Kingdom,
lined up beside Washington - by using the same arguments as France and Germany which
refused the support...
The multilateralism in the international relations, bases
of which are the partnership and the responsibility shared between States, stays a leading
value for the Eastern Europe. That is why the unilateralism practised by the United States
at present cannot be of use as platform to a long-term partnership with the
"short story" ("piece of news") Europe, quite as he could
not make it with the "old woman" Europe.
The differences of positions between the American
conservatives and the former communist countries are substantial and inevitable, in
particular as regards the criteria of the appeal to the force. Recently, the
administration Bush appreciably revised these criteria in the decline, especially after
the events of September 11th, 2001. The history of the Eastern Europe is crossed by bloody
conflicts and by attacks, and the use of the force to resolve crises was there mostly
fatal... What moves closer to the former communist countries of the vision of the Western
Europe which is that of a policy of mutual interdependence, contrary to a competitive
vision which advocates the direct appeal to the force.
By supporting the United States, the former communist
countries of the Eastern Europe chose the partner whose capacities suited most, in the
context, to their interests. It is not the President Bush, but indeed the British Prime
Minister Tony Blair who took the immense risk of going against the opinion of his own
party and who played his brilliant political career, and it to defend a political vision
in a moment of break between Europe and the United States. For him, the transatlantic
partnership and the European integration are two objectives of the same importance as we
would not know how to realize separately. Even if Blair tries to promote the British
national interests, he also defends the western unity for the future. The east Europeans
have the same vision and the same objectives. The question is to know if they will realize
them. After 1989, the idea which determined the policy of the post-communist countries was
to follow closely the West. Today, it is not any more for the agenda and the West is not
any more the same.
Now, the most essential question is the setting up of new
active and coherent policy which builds Atlantic Europe and which opposes to the revival
of retrograde and reactionary Europe of Big Powers. The Atlantic cause is not lost. One
day new capable governments will arrive in Berlin and Washington and will resume the
transatlantic cooperation and will grant it a well-balanced and rational importance.
Western Europe is divided itself on the future of the Euro-Atlantic relations. The
position of the new democracies could thus turn out decisive and arouse a new effort to
protect and rethink the Atlantic Alliance - the most successful alliance in the history -
and to anticipate the challenges which our common future will prepare. |